Back before Christmas, Commissioner of Health Jan Malcom often estimated that getting through the half-million Minnesotans within three tiers of group 1a -- a group made up of public-facing and critical health care workers, EMS, and those living and working in long-term care -- would require all of January.
Under that timetable, here at the start of February, the state should have been getting to Phase 1b by now. That group as described back then included those over 75 as well as "essential workers" serving in roles like transit, day-care, grocery workers, non-first responders within the police department and utility workers who repaired roads and ran the water plant.
Instead, the second month of 2021 now finds the vaccination timetable having been re-set entirely. With the state having briefly launched a wait list and lottery for those over 64, then establishing dedicated vaccination sites for education workers, it is now funneling new supplies into health systems for those over 80 or all over 64 if they so wish.
The goal posts have shifted and it leaves Bill McKay feeling frustrated. A road maintenance employee of the City of Rochester in his early 60s, he has watched as the category once known as 1b "essential workers" has become something of an apparition ever retreating in the distance.
"We can't work from home, we have to come to work every day, we are out in the general public, people come up to talk to us, they want to know what were doing and ask questions, so it's difficult for us to do our jobs," he says, explaining his vulnerability of exposure to the virus.
Left unsaid, should McKay and his coworkers fall sick to the virus, the city could face a municipal garage short on those capable of snowplowing. With the heaviest weeks for snowfall still on the horizon, his crew is the definition of essential, and yet their status as prioritized vaccine recipients has become a mystery.
"I was just curious of where we fall in the hierarchy?" he asks. "Nobody seems to be able to tell you....There's a lot of us that do want to have the vaccination."
Complicating this mystery, metro-area news reports now suggest that police officers are being vaccinated in large numbers, a group that is formally considered part of 1b.
"It's not just our group," he says. "You look at the folks that work at the sewer plant, a grocery store worker or day care worker, we're all essential, but where do we fall in line...nobody seems to have an answer."
Health officials effectively stopped talking about essential workers in early January, when federal health officials under the outgoing administration abruptly upended the initial vaccine rollout timetable, and instead advised states to begin vaccinating everyone over 65 immediately.
By going along and carving an early option for this group -- those in their late 60s and educators -- the state is effectively now staring down the largest segment of Minnesotans within 1b, a bloc of 1.1 million residents, all to be seen before "essential workers."
A state advisory group charged with finalizing the details of vaccination for the state's "essential workers" has met twice, and has yet to release their plan.
State director of infectious disease Kris Ehresmann addressed the enormity of these challenges on a press call Monday, February 1, and said the state is taking up part of 1b.
"Although there has not been a formal announcement of Phase 1b prioritization," Ehresmann said, "two of the groups that we're working with now -- those age 65 plus and employees working in child care and schools -- are included in 1b. So while we haven't made a formal announcement, we are moving forward beyond Phase 1a vaccination."
Today, Ehresmann put a date on when those 1.1 million people will likely be served, a point allowing "essential workers" to finally get their shots.
The date falls long after the need for snow plowing has passed.
"Today we're looking at several months -- 16 weeks -- to get through the populations that we need to get through (in those over 65)"... based on our current vaccine availability," she said.
"If people can keep that in mind, that may help to ease their frustration. We ask that you recognize that we have a large task in vaccinating 1.1 million people in these groups, with very little vaccine to do that."
There is hope on the horizon, however, in the form of increased shipments.
"To date, we had been receiving from 60,000 to 65,000 doses a week," said the MDH's John Schadl in an email. "However this week Minnesota learned we would be receiving a 16% increase in its allotment.
"That could add over 10,000 additional doses to our weekly supply. We are hopeful that as new vaccines win FDA authorization and manufacturing output increases we will be able to significantly increase our vaccination program."
"We have a very thoughtful Vaccine Advisory Workgroup in Minnesota that has done some thinking with us how we might think about those next groups," said Malcolm on Tuesday.
"With the limited vaccine supply it will be a while until we get to additional groups, however, we appreciate people's desire to have a better sense of what is the path forward."
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