To get winter here in Michigan, winter has to develop in southern Canada. It appears there won’t be any lack of cold air in southern Canada. As a result, we have to think winter isn’t waiting this year.
Sometime in October, November or even some years December we see a winter strength of cold appear in southern Canada. It is at that point that we know a winter weather pattern is going to take over Michigan really soon.
The cold air over Canada looks like late November right now instead of mid-October.
Temperature forecast through October 22 shows cold air is sizable.
It’s not just shallow cold air at the surface. The image below is the temperature deviation from normal for 5,000 feet up. It’s a forecast for Friday, October 16, 2020. The green and purple are areas that will be five degrees Celsius to 10 degrees Celsius colder than average. This translates to about 10 degrees F to 15 degrees F colder than average.
Large expanse of colder than the long-term average showing up in blue, green and purple.
With the last chart below, the forecast at 15,000 feet up for Saturday morning shows a cold upper-level low pressure system near Hudson Bay. Another sign that winter-like air is close to Michigan.
A cold upper-level storm center is centered over southern Canada.
So we have a few things to think about here. Winter probably will hit Michigan sooner rather than later. I just can’t see a large pool of cold air being that close and not moving south before December. Of course I’m talking about the first possible lake effect snow in northwest Lower this weekend. So maybe the next two weeks are the start of winter-like weather. If the cold air comes down into Michigan now, it will be cold but not as cold as if it waits a few weeks.
The other scenario that is quite possible is an early movement of winter-like cold into Michigan in October and November, and then a let-up in winter cold in late November or December. I think this is highly likely if we get very cold soon.
But the main point to take away here is winter is probably not going to wait until Christmas or New Year’s Day.
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Winter won’t wait with large area of cold air just north of Michigan - MLive.com
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