On a collision course?
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Today’s Agenda
It’s a (Thucydides) Trap (Sort Of)!
In the long run-up to the new cold war, Bloomberg Opinion writers have written early and often of the Thucydides Trap. This refers not to a fun way to capture the ancient historian Thucydides for a birthday surprise, unfortunately, but to the inevitability of war between rising powers and established ones. Think Athens vs. Sparta or Marlo Stanfield vs. Avon Barksdale.
But the idea of the Thucydides Trap, popularized by a much later historian, might oversimplify the causes of war. What if, in fact, a rising power starts to worry its rise might stop, keeping the established power in place? Might that make war even more likely? Tyler Cowen raises this question in the context of the U.S. and China.
The latter has long been considered a modern-day Athens, muscling into the territory of America, the Sparta in this brain exercise. Its destiny as the world’s biggest economy and new hegemon has seemed undeniable. But the pandemic has tweaked the calculus. The U.S. is rehabbing its economy much more aggressively than China is. Both should have an absolutely mammoth year economically, Dan Moss writes, but the U.S. could look more vital than it has in decades, making it less clear which country is the up-and-comer.
Meanwhile, confronting China has become a rare source of bipartisan unity in the U.S., and the rest of the world is starting to get on board. That could soon include trying to limit China’s regional influence. Beijing might well see its ability to grab Taiwan, one of its most cherished goals, slipping away. What better time to strike, Tyler asks, than, say, now? This would be a trap of a different sort for the U.S. Read the whole thing.
Bonus Cold-War-Readiness Reading: America’s crumbling industrial base starves the military of supplies and raises costs, hurting national security. — Bloomberg’s editorial board
Russia Just Can’t Quit You, Fossil Fuels
Of course, America’s foe in Cold War I hasn’t exactly gone anywhere. Russia is no longer ascendant, but it can still make plenty of trouble. And it draws a lot of power from its rich supplies of fossil fuels. But this strength is also a growing weakness, Clara Ferreira Marques writes, as the country seems oblivious to how global opinion is shifting against its dirty exports, not to mention how much climate change is already starting to hurt it. Like Saudi Arabia, Russia has the resources to shift to greener energy. Unlike Saudi Arabia, Russia apparently doesn’t see its reliance on oil, gas and coal as a problem.
Frozen North
Areas of discontinuous permafrost could see a 50%-75% drop in load bearing capacity by 2015-25 compared with 1965-75
Sources: National Snow and Ice Data Center; Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme
A Tale of Two Covid Governors
It’s hard to think of two more controversial local leaders in the Covid age than California Governor Gavin Newsom and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The first could be recalled for his pandemic restrictions. The second is widely scorned for his lack thereof. And yet the results in their states, in terms of deaths, aren’t all that different. California’s in slightly better shape, but parts of the state have been a nightmare. Justin Fox suggests we give these governors way too much credit or blame for pandemic outcomes. The real differences are at county levels, and there’s more at work than just government policies.
The Geography of Covid-19
Covid deaths per 100,000 population
Sources: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (everywhere but a few counties in Utah), New York Times (a few counties in Utah)
Data as of April 4, 2021
Further Pandemic Reading: Is the AstraZeneca vaccine safe or not? — Sam Fazeli
Telltale Charts
Though too many Americans are still unemployed, private wages are now higher than they were before the pandemic, Brian Chappatta writes, hinting at inflation pressures.
Riding the Wage Wave
Total private payrolls hit a record high even with millions of job openings
Source: Labor Department
Note: Index is calculated by dividing the current month's aggregate by the average of the 12 monthly figures for the base year (2007=100).
Further Reading
Leverage ratios are holding banks back from lending as the Fed crams their reserves full. — Bill Dudley
Jamie Dimon is much more optimistic than Ray Dalio. — Brian Chappatta
Credit Suisse can recover from the back-to-back blows of Greensill and Archegos, but it must make all the right moves now. — Marcus Ashworth
Intel’s big chipmaking ambitions face some big hurdles, including the fact that rivals won’t want its services. — Tae Kim
It’s kind of refreshing that Republicans haven’t been attacking Kamala Harris. — Jonathan Bernstein
Yes, MLB should lose its antitrust immunity, but only because it’s an anachronism based on bad law. — Joe Nocera
The pandemic meant the end of the all-day job interview, and good riddance. — Virginia Postrel
ICYMI
Sweden’s digital currency will take longer than it thought.
Jellyfish-like things shut down two Korean nuclear reactors.
Tiger Woods was driving really, really fast.
Kickers
Archaeologists think an ancient slab is a 4,000-year-old 3-D map. (h/t Ellen Kominers)
Fruit flies could help us make self-driving cars. (h/t Mike Smedley)
Humans mated with Neanderthals much earlier and more often than we thought.
Subatomic particle appears to break the known laws of physics.
Notes: Please send particles and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.
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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Brooke Sample at bsample1@bloomberg.net
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China Might Not Wait to Force the Taiwan Issue - Bloomberg
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