Editor’s note: With the seventh overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, the Detroit Lions select ... a receiver? Another tight end? Their quarterback of the future? How about another offensive lineman? It’s impossible to say for sure, although it is possible to whittle the list of possibilities to nine. Detroit’s pick, if it sits on the pick, will almost certainly come from that list. MLive will profile each of those players over the next nine days. Previously: Oregon OT Penei Sewell | Florida TE Kyle Pitts | Alabama WR DeVonta Smith
Name: Trey Lance
Position: Quarterback
School: North Dakota State
Hometown: Marshall, Minnesota
Size: 6-foot-3, 224 pounds (9 1/8 inch hands, 31 1/2-inch arm length, 76 3/4-inch wingspan)
40-yard dash: n/a (deferred to in-game GPS data)
Bench press: n/a
Vertical jump: n/a
Broad jump: n/a
Key Stats: Lance threw 28 touchdowns and no interceptions while leading North Dakota State to an FCS championship in 2019. He completed 66.9% of his passes for 2,786 yards while sporting an average depth of target of 12.2 yards. Lance gained another 1,110 yards and 14 scores on the ground. To go with those no interceptions in 2019, Pro Football Focus reports Lance had only four turnover-worthy plays that season. That’s ridiculous and a testament to his natural feel with the ball in his hands, not to mention some major earned props to North Dakota State’s coaching staff.
Why he makes sense
Trey Lance’s development should take a couple of years at the next level, and that’s OK. It’s worth noting because it aligns nicely with Jared Goff’s restructured contract. Goff and the Lions are likely tied together for at least two seasons, giving the former No. 1 pick another shot to get his career back on track and Detroit a viable starter in the first days post-Matthew Stafford.
Lance has all the tools in the world to make it at the next level. He has a cannon of an arm and drool-worthy athletic traits when looking to create magic on the go. Still, he comes with limited experience against inferior competition, all while not playing for more than a year. He lit FCS competition on fire in 2019, though, leading North Dakota State to a national championship. Lance turns 21 next month, so there’s no rushing this project if he’s not ready as the youngest and most inexperienced of the Day 1 quarterbacks.
Quarterback is the most premium position in the game. That thinking isn’t going anywhere, meaning the fact that Lance is a 20-year-old potential franchise signal-caller with a ceiling located somewhere outside the International Space Station is hard to ignore. With four first-round picks in the next two drafts (not including this year), Brad Holmes and the Lions have an opportunity to land a starting quarterback of the future while building the roster while he grows for a pair of seasons. There is built-in patience here, and that’s a massive plus when examining the fit for Lance in Detroit.
Why he doesn’t make sense
This team has been really, really bad the past couple of years, and it’s hard to imagine this roster competing with too many teams in 2021. That’s all fine and dandy as part of a rebuild, but this team needs bodies in more than a couple of spots, and using Pick 7 on an FCS quarterback who hasn’t started a real game in more than a year is quite the gamble in Holmes’ first draft in the big chair.
Goff is the starter in 2021 and very likely in 2022. Let’s get that out of the way real quick. The Lions have two first-round picks in 2021 and two first-round picks in 2022 through the Stafford trade, giving them more than enough opportunities to address the quarterback situation. This way of thinking also gives Holmes a year to see what Goff can do without Rams coach Sean McVay over his shoulder for the first time.
There are also special pass-catchers in this year’s draft, which the Lions desperately need. Kyle Pitts, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith would each be hard to pass as things currently stand, no matter if Lance remains on the board or not. Holmes has expressed confidence in Goff as his starter, and one of these names would solidify those words as more than empty media praise. Detroit’s defense has also been among the most dreadful units the NFL has had to offer for two years running. Trading back and going defense would likely involve another team falling in love with Lance, which puts the Lions in an interesting situation of potentially needing a franchise quarterback while trading out of a spot to select one. There are a lot of options here, but that’s doesn’t change the fact that drafting Lance feels like the riskiest of them all.
What he says
On the idea of sitting for a couple of seasons at the next level: “My mindset is I’m going to come in and compete regardless of where I’m at. I don’t think teams want me to come in any other way. I’m a competitor first and foremost ... Whatever organization I go to, I’m going to be as ready as I possibly can Day 1. I’m a competitor first and foremost, so I’m going to compete for that spot regardless of where I’m at or what the situation is.” (Via NFL Draft Bible)
On playing only one full season: “The biggest thing for me is just to control what I can control and not worrying about what I can’t. I played every game I possibly could in college, like I said earlier, it would have been great too -- obliviously was anticipating to win another national championship in January and then have to make the decision then, but it didn’t work out that way. Everyone got cheated out of something with COVID, so for me, my mindset toward it is just controlling what I can control and not worrying about everything else.”
On how his running ability will translate at the next level: “I think that’s one of my strengths -- to be able to move the pocket and scramble and make plays with my legs ... I would hope that wherever I go, that would be some part of my game. I mean, it will at some point.”
What they say
NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah: “He’s built like a brick house, so he’s going to be durable. He’s going to add to your running game because you can use some designed quarterback run game, which he’s built to handle. He’s incredibly intelligent, and that’s -- I’ve spent time with him, and I’ve talked to a bunch of teams that have spent time with him and have been kind of blown away through the interview process with him. The character, the work ethic, all that stuff is exceptional from everybody that you talk to there at North Dakota State. So all those things like we know going in he’s got all that stuff. Now there’s some mechanical things he can work on like he bounces on his toes a little bit when he gets to the top of his drop, and then he’ll sink before he throws and you’ll see it impact his accuracy. That stuff is all fixable.”
Derrik Klassen (via Football Outsiders): “For my money, though, it’s all of the signs that point to Lance having a reasonably high floor that make him worth getting excited over. The flash and potential are clear, but so many of Lance’s strengths on film suggest he will have solid ground to stand on early in his NFL career, even if there will be bumps along the way in his development.”
ESPN’s Mina Kimes: “I think Trey Lance is the most exciting quarterback in this draft because he has the highest ceiling. I mean, the traits are out of this world, and there is subtlety to those traits. For example, you’ll hear about his arm strength, but he doesn’t just have a cannon. He throws the ball with touch ... You’ll hear a lot about his athleticism, but again, it’s not just size and speed. Yeah, he can run power, but he can also navigate a pocket with incredible poise for someone his age.” (via NFL Live)
The bottom line
Trey Lance is fun to watch, built like a tank, and while it’s easy to write how he has all the tools to develop into a franchise quarterback, that doesn’t make it any less true. Lance can ball.
He looks like he could eventually handle designed runs with ease, with the wheels to get out of the pocket and more than enough pop to let it rip. The Lions are executing a long-term rebuild whether they publicly admit it or not, and Lance could set them up for the next two years of roster building with the most important piece already in place.
"exciting" - Google News
April 22, 2021 at 09:21PM
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The Nine: Trey Lance is the most mysterious and exciting of the Day 1 quarterbacks - MLive.com
"exciting" - Google News
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