Throughout this offseason, I’ll be reviewing the current status of all 30 MLB clubs, in reverse order of their standing on my 2021 year-end team true-talent rankings. Today, we continue with the No. 5 Toronto Blue Jays.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Record = 91-71, Projected Record = 98-64
Offensive Rating = 116.1 (1st), Pitching Rating = 94.1 (9th), Defensive Rating = 98.7 (13th); 2021 ASB = 5th, 2020 Final = 16th
As I write this, it is unknown when the 2022 MLB season will get underway. When it finally does, it appears virtually certain that the 30 clubs will be competing for at least 12 postseason slots. I’m a relative purist, and am not fond of further dilution of the playoff field. That said, one of the few positives resulting from such a development is that the 5th best club in the sport would almost certainly not be sitting on the sidelines.
If you’ve been following these rankings, you know that my #9 overall club, the Atlanta Braves, won it all in 2021. Of the 10 clubs that reached the postseason, the lowest-ranked one according to my method was the #15 St. Louis Cardinals. We all know that baseball is the most random of the major sports, but all of us lost when that randomness cost us the presence of the Toronto Blue Jays from October baseball.
Let us count the ways that the Blue Jays are pleasing to the eye of both the serious and casual baseball fan:
- Just a few years ago, the Houston Astros proved that you could be an offensive juggernaut while consistently putting the ball in play. While three-true-outcome (homers, walks, strikeouts) baseball has been increasingly in vogue of late, the Astros kicked the strikeouts to the curb. The Blue Jays, to a point, follow the same model. They led the AL in homers in 2021, finished 3rd in runs scored - and struck out less than everyone, including the Astros. There’s one big difference offensively between the two clubs, however......
- Rightly or wrongly, the Astros and their position players are inevitably linked to the postseason cheating scandal during their 2017 World Championship season. Even if you take that out of the equation, the Astros are so businesslike and relatively cold in the way they go about their business. Not so the Jays - this is one fun bunch, taking on the personality of their young leader, Vladimir Guerrero Jr..
- They build from within. There’s Vladdy, and Bo Bichette and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. anchoring the offense. Starting pitcher Alek Manoah jumped right into their rotation in a tight AL East race and looked comfortable from the get-go. And the cupboard is far from bare, with catcher Gabriel Moreno and flamethrower Nate Pearson the best of the next wave.
- They’re not afraid to spend to upgrade their club. They traded for starting pitcher Jose Berrios at the deadline last season and locked him up for the next seven seasons for $131M. They added another righty starter, Kevin Gausman via free agency after the season, committing $110M over the next five years. Outfielder George Springer signed a six-year, $150M deal prior to the 2021 season. Players also seem to get better after spending time in Toronto. Infielder Marcus Semien and lefty starters Robbie Ray - the 2021 Al Cy Young Award winner - and Steven Matz departed in the offseason, but earned their riches after relatively short stints with the Blue Jays.
Prior to the 2021 season, the Jays looked like a potential offensive juggernaut, albeit one with a questionable pitching staff and subpar team defense. The addition of a second shortstop in the infield in Semien stabilized the defense, while Ray, Matz, Berrios and Manoah propelled the pitching staff forward. Obviously, some of those pieces are no longer in place, but their reinforcements look promising.
At 32, Springer is their oldest starting position player. Their best guys, Guerrero and Bichette, are only 23 and 24, and while Gurriel is 28, his tools offer more projection than most players his age. On the mound, only Hyun-Jin Ryu at 35 is in the latter stages of his career. I would venture to say that none of the under-30 Jays has peaked as of yet - a truly scary thought given the monstrous nature of Guerrero’s 2021.
I’ve generally tried to stay away from discussing the current MLB lockout while rolling out these team true-talent rankings, but as we near the top, the frustration mounts. Thanks to both COVID-19 and now the lockout, we are losing snippets of players’ careers and teams’ arcs that we’re not going to get back. Mike Trout, thanks to injury and those other factors, now has a hole in his career. Ditto Ronald Acuna Jr.. And Juan Soto. And teams like the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox. We’ll tackle the Chisox next week......they’re built for a today that is being taken from them. At least the Blue Jays are built for today, plus a whole bunch of tomorrows.
THE 2021 SEASON
It all begins with Vladdy. It was only a matter of time before his 2021 explosion. He’s destroyed the baseball since arriving in the majors, but had some difficulty elevating it. He crushes fly balls, liners and grounders - no one in the game hits grounders harder. He supplements his ball-striking prowess with an exceptional K/BB profile. He’s capable of even better seasons, as his 18.8% liner and 12.3% BB rate can only be expected to improve, and his now average-range fly rate can still grow.
SS Bo Bichette gets somewhat lost in Guerrero’s shadow. He actually compares quite favorably to an early-career version of Derek Jeter. He’s a little behind Guerrero on the development curve - his average launch angle (7.3 to Guerrero’s 9.4 degrees) and walk rate (5.8%) have tons of upward potential. His defense is plenty good to remain at shortstop. Both Guerrero Jr. and Bichette have potential MVP upside.
The Jays hope to see the healthy version of CF Springer in 2022. I saw some reasons for concern in his truncated 2021 campaign. He was pretty much a dead pull hitter, and was quite fortunate on fly balls. He batted .468 AVG-1.392 SLG (207 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score), but his exit speed supported a much lower .396 AVG-1.165 (146 Adjusted) line. His 115 “Tru” Production+ was way below his 140 wRC+.
Corner outfielders Gurriel Jr. and Hernandez extend the dangerous portion of the Jays’ lineup. Gurriel’s development stagnated a bit in 2021, as his batted ball authority descended into the average range. He makes plenty of contact and rarely pops up - markers of a high-average hitter. He also routinely runs low walk rates - a trait of many budding power hitters. Gurriel needs to decide what type of hitter he wants to be, and work toward that. Hernandez knows what he is, and that’s a high-risk, high-reward #5-type hitter. He focuses on damaging the baseball, swing-and-miss be damned. And I’ll be darned, he’s done a nice job of refining his approach, cutting the Ks while his walk rate has remained low.
The Jays’ offense could be propelled over the top with the emergence of a catcher who can hit. And there are two options on that front, Alejandro Kirk and prospect Gabriel Moreno. Kirk’s 5’8”, 265, frame is the eye-catcher, but his balanced offensive game also stands out. It’s uncertain as to whether he can handle a full-time role, but Moreno may make that point moot. Moreno is a fearsome offensive prospect with the tools to stick behind the plate. He could use a good chunk of 2022 to refine his defense in the minors, but should be ready by season’s end.
The only criticism I have of the veteran nucleus at the top of the Jays’ rotation is that I don’t see a true ace. I see both Berrios and Gausman as strong #2 starters in the short term. Berrios is a strikethrower who allows fairly authoritative contact. He has a high floor and a ceiling not far above where he has resided in the recent past. Gausman’s numbers were puffed up a bit by a sterling Giants’ team defense. There was a huge gulf between his actual/Unadjusted Contact Score of 88 and his Adjusted Mark of 106 last season. He’s totally reliant on one offering, his out-pitch splitter, which makes him riskier than most. (And for the record, Ray was no Cy winner for me. He’s still a historically poor contact manager, and despite his exceptional bat-missing ability, his 2021 “Tru” ERA- clocked in at 82, just better than Berrios’ 86 and worse than Gausman’s 81.
Ryu appeared to begin his decline phase in 2021, as his K rate dropped sharply and the authority of the contact he allowed spiked in the opposite direction. He’s a finesse guy with little margin for error, and I wouldn’t count on him for much more than league average-range innings bulk moving forward.
The Jays hope that their future ace is either Manoah or Pearson. Pearson was expected to contribute first, but his 100 mph heater needs help, and he needs to avoid nagging injuries that have plagued him to date. Manoah was brilliant in his first MLB season. If possible, he was better than his gaudy numbers. He totally squelched contact authority of all types, posting an Adjusted Contact Score of 75 that would have led the AL had he pitched enough innings to qualify. That keyed a “Tru” ERA- of 68, far better than his 89 FIP-.
Jordan Romano is a legit MLB closer. He may have pitched a little over his head last season - that 13.5% liner rate allowed is certainly going to regress upward - but he offers a solid combination of bat-missing and contact management authority. He’s in the next tier beneath the Raisel Iglesias-Emmanuel Clase-Liam Hendriks group that paces the AL.
DOWN ON THE FARM
C Moreno is the top dog here, and he could make an impact in 2022. Infielders Jordan Groshans and Otto Lopez are about a year away from contending for big league spots. The former is a .270/20 HR type that could play shortstop, but likely fits best at 3B in Toronto, while the latter has a little less pop but perhaps a better hit tool to go along with defensive versatility. Orelvis Martinez is a younger, perhaps better version of Groshans who’s about a year away from entering the big league picture. The pitching cupboard is barer behind Pearson, with the best arms at the A-ball level. Overall, the Jays’ system is in the average range, and is heavily tilted toward position players.
OFFSEASON FOCUS
The Jays watched Ray and Matz leave, but have filled their spots with Berrios, Gausman and hopefully Pearson. They may poke around for another bat once the lockout lifts, with potential DH Kyle Schwarber one possibility.
"exciting" - Google News
March 03, 2022 at 09:13PM
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Young, Exciting Toronto Blue Jays Are On Verge Of Something Special - Forbes
"exciting" - Google News
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