Wait times for the iPhone 13 are longer than they were for the iPhone 12.
George Frey/Getty ImagesApple ‘s iPhone 13 wasn’t a huge step up from last year’s iPhone 12. Still, initial wait times on the company’s website could signal stronger demand—or lighter supply.
The wait times as of Monday were longer for all models of the iPhone13 than they were for the comparable iPhone 12 models that Apple (ticker: AAPL) rolled out last year, according to an analysis by Credit Suisse analyst Matthew Cabral.
The analyst tracked initial iPhone 13 wait times on Apple’s website in key markets. He found wait times of three to five weeks for the higher-end iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max—about two weeks longer than the iPhone 12 Pro and the iPhone 12 Pro Max.
The lower-priced models had wait times, too, though not as long, Cabral’s tracking shows. More than two-thirds of the base iPhone 13 and iPhone Mini models have wait times longer than a week, compared with roughly a fourth of their iPhone 12 counterparts.
The higher-priced iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max have wait times longer than the base iPhone 13 in all markets, with all of the Pro and Pro Max units tracked at greater than three weeks. That could be a sign consumers are more interested in the higher-end models, which would be a positive development for Apple. On the flip side, he notes that the cheapest memory storage option at 128GB has the longest shipping windows for the base and mini models.
Cabral wrote that long wait times can be a rough proxy for initial demand, though he qualified that a bit by pointing out how supply availability is a key unknown variable.
“Overall, it’s still too early to draw definitive conclusions on iPhone 13 demand from wait time data, particularly as heightened supply constraints potentially skew [year-over-year] comparisons,” he wrote. “We’ll be watching sellthrough trends closely for a better read on year 2 of the 5G era.”
Apple stock was up 0.3% to $143.38 in afternoon trading Tuesday, after a rough day for tech giants and the broader market on Monday.
Aside from general demand for the devices, BofA Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan wrote in a note to clients Tuesday that a resurgence in nationalist sentiment in China could be a risk to iPhone sales there. He thinks the company has navigated its relationship with China well so far, but estimates every 10% drop in iPhone sales in the country would imply 4 million to 5 million lower iPhone unit sales, or a $4 billion headwind to revenue.
“Apple’s relationship with China is unique given it is a large market for its product and services, but also Apple creates significant employment in China through itsmanufacturing and through the large developer community,” he added.
Mohan estimates 210 million iPhones will be sold in fiscal 2022, with about 40 million to 50 million sold in China, but notes tighter restrictions from the Chinese government for videogames could impact the company’s App Store sales growth.
Write to Connor Smith at connor.smith@barrons.com
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