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STILL WORKING THROUGH IT ALL: Here’s where things stand for the Democrats’ large climate and safety net package — still waiting its turn in line, as congressional leaders try to maneuver their way through some remaining must-pass items.

The annual defense policy bill looks likely to be lawmakers’ central focus this week, with a compromise measure hashed out between House and Senate negotiators potentially getting a vote in the coming days.

Beyond that, Congress is running out of time to deal with the debt limit. But as for the Democrats’ big tax-and-spend legislation?

Key lawmakers and administration officials say they definitely want to pass that this year, and maybe even expect that to happen — though that doesn’t mean that it has to happen this year.

Meanwhile, key centrist Democrats still don’t seem in any huge rush to pass President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better agenda, especially as the other work keeps piling up on them. (Latest evidence there: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is predicting that the Democrats’ social spending bill will slip into next year, according to Punchbowl News.)

MORE ON THAT IN A BIT, but first welcome to the “clock is really ticking” edition of Morning Tax. There will be a lot of talk in the coming days about how the late Bob Dole was something of a throwback, but remember this: The 1980s-era Dole had no love for supply-side tax cutting.

The day in tax history: Today marks 95 years since Benito Mussolini’s government in Italy established a special tax on bachelors. (The New York Times noted that the tax was “based on the principle that it is a man’s duty to marry and rear children.”)

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WHAT’S NEXT FOR BBB? Democrats still have a fair amount to work through on the Build Back Better bill, including trying to find a solution for offering relief to the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions.

Plus, Senate Democrats are still working through what can make the cut in the climate and safety net package with the parliamentarian, because they’re seeking to pass the bill through budget reconciliation — with some of that work happening over the weekend.

“Senate Finance Committee Democratic staff today met with the parliamentarian to discuss numerous issues within the committee’s jurisdiction, including important provisions to ensure clean energy jobs are good paying jobs,” a committee spokesperson said Sunday.

“After months of work, we are confident that we are in compliance with Senate rules, and will continue to move forward.”

The view from the other side: Business groups increasingly are trying to push back against all the tax increase in the Democrats’ budget reconciliation measure.

But even some of the biggest groups on the attack acknowledge that it’s a trickier lobbying situation than, say, during former President Donald Trump’s first year in office — when the business community was generally united behind the GOP’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

One of the big issues now for business: How much influence Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Sinema are having over the Democrats’ proposals.

“It's a peculiar political environment where it really may come down to just two senators and that creates a different sort of dynamic,” Josh Bolten, the chief executive of the Business Roundtable, told reporters recently.

Bolten said the BRT wasn’t just focusing on Manchin and Sinema, but did note “it’s definitely a much narrower target zone than we were dealing with four years ago.”

CHECKING IN ON THE GLOBAL TAX DEAL: Will the global tax deal tamp down incentives for companies to shift profits overseas?

That’s one of the big rationales for the agreement negotiated through the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and leaders like Biden have said that part of the deal will be a key feature in ensuring that large multinationals pay their fair share of taxes.

But as Reuters notes, the OECD agreement surely seems to leave some avenues for companies to gain tax advantages for intangible assets.

Ireland, for instance, allows a scheme for multinationals active in the country to sell intellectual property like patents between subsidiaries, allowing those companies to protect future profits from getting taxed.

As you might recall, Ireland — long known for its 12.5 percent corporate tax rate — drove a hard bargain before signing on to the OECD agreement, which calls for a 15 percent global minimum rate.

The Irish finance ministry says Dublin’s approach to intangible assets is consistent with other OECD members. For their part, OECD officials say they believe the intellectual property strategy available in Ireland will become less attractive as the global tax deal comes into effect — though outside experts maintain that more of the agreement’s details need to be filled in before being too sure of that.

Related reading: The five biggest tech firms in the U.S. have started taking far more advantage of the deduction for foreign-derived intangible income (FDII), Marty Sullivan of Tax Notes reports off of their most recent annual reports.

The 2017 GOP tax law gave companies a tax cut on their income from FDII, which comes from exporting products linked to intellectual property like patents or copyrights. Biden had proposed getting rid of the deduction, but the most recent Build Back Better bill would increase the effective rate on FDII.

Around the World

HOW ARE WE DOING THIS? Rishi Sunak, Great Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer, is reviewing potential options for cutting taxes, Bloomberg reports. The U.K. currently has its highest tax burden in a couple generations, to help Sunak and the Conservative government put new investments into safety net programs. Still, Sunak repeatedly has pledged to seek to cut taxes by the time British voters next head to the polls, which has to be by 2024. The options that Treasury officials have put before Sunak include cuts to both the income and value-added taxes. The chancellor’s preference would be to cut the income tax by about 2 percent over three years, according to The Times — though other options include cutting the headline VAT rate of 20 percent and scrapping the top income tax rate of 45 percent (which applies to all income north of 150,000 pounds, or just about $200,000, a year). For its part, the Treasury will only say that it’s constantly reviewing the tax system, and some officials say it’s too early for Sunak to have any favorites among potential tax-cutting avenues.

Around the Nation

ON SECOND THOUGHT? A new payroll tax is set to go into effect in Washington state on Jan. 1 — that is, unless Gov. Jay Inlsee and his fellow Democrats running the legislature decide to delay the levy, The Seattle Times reports. The 0.58 percent payroll tax will fund the state’s long-term care benefit program, the first of its kind in the nation. But Democrats in the state Senate are already pressing Inslee to delay the tax, which has faced a number of criticisms, until the beginning of 2023. Inslee says that he doesn’t have the authority to delay the tax on his own, but that he is talking about a potential pause with lawmakers. The governor would have to call the legislature back for a special session sometime this month for lawmakers to vote on a delay. Or there might be another option that would allow the legislature to wait until next year, though state officials are still checking to see if it’s legal — basically allowing for a pause in collections while lawmakers work on updates to the program.

Quick Links

USA Today: “'A matter of fundamental fairness': Same-sex couples could get tax break under Build Back Better plan.”

Bloomberg: “E-Bike Sales Could Get Big Push From Build Back Better Act.”

Associated Press: “City council approves additional 3 percent tax on Oahu lodging.”

Did You Know?

Something at some point, definitely. Bob Dole was Senate Finance chair from 1981 to 1985.

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